Will the new Trump cabinet protect Taiwan?
The December issue of Sentaku magazine contained an article entitled, “Reasons for Donald Trump’s Cold Attitude Towards Lai Ching-te: Taiwan Fears American Change of Heart.” It read:
“People involved with Taiwanese President Lai’s government have voiced concern that Trump’s second cabinet may not be friendly with Taiwan. While Trump’s major cabinet picks take a hard line on China, he named none of the three main politicians who are particularly trusted by Taiwan. Most importantly, Trump has made stern comments about Taiwan since the election. One of the central figures in his government is Elon Musk, an entrepreneur who has a positive relationship with China. There is a pervasive sense of uncertainty regarding the situation with China and Taiwan.” “After winning the election, Trump announced many major cabinet ministers for his upcoming administration. His pick for secretary of state is Senator Marco Rubio, said to have a hawkish stance on China. Trump’s national security adviser is Representative Mike Waltz, and his secretary of defense is Pete Hegseth, a television presenter and former Army National Guard officer.” “Taiwanese government officials are considerably disappointed because Trump named none of the three politicians with whom the Taiwanese authorities have made great efforts to build positive relationships: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Principal China Policy and Planning Adviser Miles Yu, and former Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger.” “Making an abrupt change from his first administration, Trump displayed a harsh attitude on the Taiwan issue during the election. Trump seemed to have forsaken Taiwan during a September interview with the Washington Post, when he said it will be important for Taiwan’s leaders to drastically increase defense spending over the next four years. He pointed out that Taiwan is 9,000 miles (roughly 14,480 kilometers) from the United States, but just 100 miles from China. This is why some Taiwanese pundits said Trump has no intention of protecting Taiwan.” “During his appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience, a popular podcast, in October, Trump said that Taiwan stole the American semiconductor business. He stated that Taiwan wants protection but pays nothing for it, and mentioned that the mob charges money for protection. As a result, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) stock prices fell by more than 4%.” “A member of the Taiwanese ruling party said, ‘It seems Trump is still angry that the large-scale Wisconsin investment plan fell through.’ Right after Trump’s inauguration in 2017, Hon Hai Precision Industry Founder Terry Gou announced that a new liquid crystal panel factory would be built by major Taiwanese company Foxconn, based on a proposal from Trump.” “Trump was thrilled with this plan, which was intended to create more than 10,000 jobs with investment of 10 billion dollars (more than 1.5 trillion yen) in Wisconsin. Trump extensively publicized the deal as his own achievement. He attended the groundbreaking ceremony the following June with Gou, where they held shovels and declared that construction would start on the factory. However, the investment plan came to an impasse when discussing preferential tax measures and other conditions. There was powerful opposition from locals, and Trump’s opponents poked fun at him for being ‘swindled.’ Since his crushing 2020 defeat in Wisconsin, Trump has clearly had a harsh demeanor towards Taiwan.” “Trump spoke on the telephone with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen after his win in 2016. This made major news because past diplomatic precedent stated that current or incumbent American presidents do not have telephone conferences with the president of Taiwan, because the U.S. and Taiwan have no diplomatic relationship. Trump ignored China’s furious protests, writing on his social media account, ‘The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency.’” “According to a Taiwanese diplomatic official, Lai reached out to Trump via several routes to suggest a phone call after the 2024 election, but Trump disregarded all these attempts. The aforementioned official stated that Trump has a totally different stance from eight years ago.” “Japan will certainly be affected if the Trump administration takes a harsh stance on Taiwan. This would be a nightmare for both countries.” “More and more, Trump’s upcoming economic policy seems to be aimed at containing China. During the election he stated his intent to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China, which would deal a devastating blow. An embargo on cutting-edge semiconductors and their manufacturing devices would constrain China’s increasingly advanced industry. In particular, Trump wants to force American companies to domestically manufacture products for which China has a large share, including electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and solar panels. The Joe Biden administration implemented hardline measures against China, including additional tariffs on EVs and batteries. Trump 2.0 is aiming to move production bases in cutting-edge industries outside of China, thereby hollowing out its manufacturing industry. The Xi Jinping government’s Made in China 2025 industrial policy threatens the whole world. It seems likely that this policy will crumble when Trump regains the presidency.”
Trump’s policies will be influenced by the Prioritizer faction
As described in Sentaku, it appears that Trump has a more pessimistic way of thinking about Taiwan compared to the Biden and first Trump governments. However, we must have a far-reaching perspective of the new government’s overall foreign policy when predicting how it will actually interact with Taiwan. International Information Network Analysis is a website run by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. It posted a fascinating article on October 23, titled, “Trump 2.0 Administration’s Diplomatic and Security Policies: The Rise of the ‘Prioritizers’?” The Biden administration believed that a strong response to the Ukraine War was needed to prevent China from invading Taiwan. However, the author thinks that Trump will switch course and entrust most of its Ukraine aid to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while focusing on conflict and competition with China. The Trump camp does not have a single way of thinking; there is one particularly important faction known as the “Prioritizers.” A typical example is JD Vance, the next vice president. He said, “We do not have the industrial capacity to support a war in Ukraine, a war in Israel, potentially a war in East Asia if the Chinese invade Taiwan, so America has to pick and choose.” Vance asked if China’s Taiwan ambitions would be more dissuaded by the situation in Europe, or by the U.S. possessing military power to prevent an invasion. Accordingly, Prioritizers believe that European nations could deal with Russia by taking on more defense responsibilities, allowing the U.S. to focus on China. In other words, they think the U.S. should prioritize China due to its limited resources. However, Trump does not actually have a consistent China policy. His main focus is the economy, not military affairs, and he wants to protect American workers and farmers from unfair trade practices with China. He has only made ambiguous statements on military conflict with China regarding Taiwan. Trump clearly takes an antagonistic view of China in terms of the economy – including his additional tariffs – but there is no clarity about the military policy of his incoming administration. This government attaches great importance to rectifying injustice, whether or not it abides by the views of the Prioritizers. The article concludes that the Trump administration will ask European and East Asian nations to play active roles in maintaining regional order. This aligns with my thinking, as well.
Increased tariffs would seriously harm the American economy
It is frequently said that we cannot easily make policy predictions about the incumbent Trump administration. I think that Trump is so difficult to estimate because he makes decisions according to his business sensibilities, rather than deciding things like a traditional politician. Trump loves “deals” more than anything else. Right after the election, he announced that he will hike tariffs by 10% on Chinese imports, and by 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, as soon as he takes up office. To me, this seems like an attempt to make those countries negotiate more favorable terms. They could counteract by targeting America’s weaknesses, or they could strive to find common ground, just like in business transactions. This is not necessarily a bad thing.
However, this business-oriented mindset could lead America down a bad path. “Kiuchi Takahide’s Global Economy & Policy Insight” is a column on the Nomura Research Institute website. The November 27 article was “Trump’s Frightening Business-based Economic Policy.” In it, Kiuchi shares the following information about Trump’s proposed tariffs.
“Just like his first presidency, major risks are involved in Trump’s economic policies based on his business intuitions. He believes that a national trade deficit indicates that America is losing, like a business experiencing a deficit. He thinks the American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase as the trade deficit is reduced.” “But if prices rise due to additional tariffs on foreign parts, materials, and other goods, major damage will be dealt to American companies that import items to make products. Shifting to domestically produced parts and materials is not such an easy task. Supply chain issues will pose great obstacles for American companies, as well as Japanese companies that produce items in the U.S. Tariffs will also deal a significant blow to domestic demand, as American citizens are the ones who pay the rising costs of imported goods. Wanting America to be the sole victor, Trump’s attempts are aimed at shrinking the trade deficit and expanding the GDP. It is likely that his policy will actually deal serious harm to the American economy.” “Economists sounded the alarm about Trump’s risky economic policy before the election.” “However, he picked a group of ‘yes men’ for major cabinet positions. There seems to be no one who can rectify his mistaken policy based on business sensibilities – an extremely frightening proposition for the global economy as well.”
Still, the first Trump administration did impose additional tariffs in the past, leading to conflict and retaliatory tariffs from China. The government negotiated to postpone increased tariffs and reduce some others. We must realize that Trump could be bluffing as part of the bargaining process, and that these tariffs may not become reality.
America only prioritizes Japan when it benefits from doing so
Trump’s business perspective is concerning to allies in the security field. However, I doubt Trump would allow China to invade Taiwan, which would make the U.S. look weak. As mentioned before, Trump will expect Taiwan, Japan, and other involved neighbors to bear part of the costs and risks of containing China. Some pundits have pointed out that Trump may regard Japan as a more important ally for its strategies against China. This is not because Japan and America share the same values, but because the alliance is a useful way for America to oppose China and lower its security costs. This would also lead to future economic benefits for the U.S. Japan and Taiwan should not be entirely pessimistic about the Taiwan defense issue; they must keep a careful watch on the future Trump administration and take measures based on its objectives. The premise should be that America will not prevent Japan’s efforts to enhance its defense capabilities. Japan must absolutely obtain the ability to defend itself and abandon the thinking that peace can be achieved just by wishing for it.
December 17 (Tuesday), 5:00 p.m.
