North Korean troops were sent to Russia according to a secret agreement
“The Eyes of Saito Tsutomu” is a column in The Sankei Shimbun newspaper’s Opinion Section. The November 5 article was titled, “Kim Depends on Alliance With Russia to Avoid Decapitation.” It read:
“In most cases, there are secret, brutal agreements behind military alliances formed by dictators who care little for human life and rights. A famous example is the August 1939 treaty of non-aggression signed by Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union and Adolph Hitler of Nazi Germany.” “The two dictators entered into a secret protocol behind the scenes that led to the double invasion of Poland a month later in September, which was the start of World War II. This secret agreement brought about Poland’s demise and was the main cause of the tragedies that followed: the Holocaust, when Hitler slaughtered countless Jewish people, and the 1940 Katyn Massacre, Stalin’s mass executions of Polish military officers.” “Two tyrants embarked on their own military alliance in June 2024, 85 years after the collusion between Germany and the Soviet Union, with the signing of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership by Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country is still invading Ukraine, and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.” “The main point is Article 4, which states, ‘If one party is in a state of war, the other will immediately provide military aid and other types of assistance.’ The treaty contains 23 articles, none of which mention the two leaders’ secret agreement.” “However, a former officer in the Russian intelligence agency told the Wall Street Journal after the signing that ‘the treaty includes a secret clause allowing North Korea to send a first wave of approximately 1,000 soldiers to Ukraine for firsthand training in Russian fighting techniques.’” “This secret agreement was corroborated four months later in October when the elite North Korean 11th Corps special forces unit, nicknamed the ‘Storm Corps,’ was deployed to the Kursk Oblast (southeast Russia) and other regions where Ukrainian troops are frequently crossing the border to wage attacks.” “Ryukoku University Professor Lee Sotetsu knows a great deal about the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula. He said, ‘As of October 31, approximately 11,000 North Korean troops are massing in Kursk and other areas. They are being trained by the Russian military with the aim of deploying them in battles to recapture occupied territory. Many are new, inexperienced soldiers in their early 20s. It is possible that many may die in drone attacks and other types of fighting on the plains of Kursk, where there is nowhere to hide.’” “As payback for these soldiers, of course Kim wants Russia to intervene if a crisis occurs on the peninsula. In that case, Lee said that Kim’s worst fear is a decapitation (assassination) operation by the American and South Korean militaries – Kim hopes to depend on Putin to ensure that such an operation would not succeed.” “North Korea has sent large quantities of artillery and ballistic missiles to Russia. What Kim wants more than anything is advanced technologies like spy satellites and nuclear submarines, which would pose serious threats to Japan, the United States, and South Korea. Lee believes that ‘Russia might give North Korea these military technologies based on the numbers of soldiers who are killed and wounded.’” “It is expected that innumerable North Korean soldiers will be killed and wounded according to the secret agreement between Kim and Putin. This is a useful type of protection for Putin, who is seeing more than 1,200 of his soldiers killed every day. At the same time, the North Korean soldiers are a source of revenue for Kim. Lee said, ‘They signed a contract stating that North Korea will receive an annual amount of 4.5 million yen per soldier, with insurance of 10 million yen for death in action. Kim is the sole recipient of roughly 100 billion yen per year in foreign currency.’” “Kim also benefits because, if any soldiers happen to survive, they will have gained modern war experience that can be used during crises on the Korean Peninsula, including drone warfare.” “These unfortunate troops and their family members will not receive a single won. Their family members have been isolated and forced to relocate so they cannot leak any information.” “Ukraine has started devoting huge amounts of money to psychological tactics, encouraging North Korean troops to take this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to surrender or defect to South Korea.” “The world must absolutely not allow the Russia/North Korean allied forces to commit atrocities in their efforts to win the war for Russia as they watch the results of the November 5 presidential election in the U.S.”
On November 6, The Sankei Shimbun printed an article titled, “American Paper Reports North Korean Deaths in Battle: Authorities Say Many Soldiers Were Killed Fighting for Russia on Unspecified Date.” The paper said there were many North Korean causalities during their first battle against the Ukrainian military.
Russia cannot train sufficient numbers of soldiers
Looking back at history, we can recall that North Korea was founded with support from the Soviet Union in 1948, right after World War II. This was one month after South Korea was established under the protection of the U.S. The Soviet Union did not take part in the Korean War that broke out soon after in 1950, because it feared that the war would keep expanding. North Korea fought together with China. Afterwards, Soviet aid allowed North Korea to develop its economy, and it sent soldiers to North Vietnam during the Vietnam War – the side also receiving assistance from the Soviet Union and China. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia became a market economy. Its relationship with North Korea, which remained a socialist country, suffered at that time. Although they had close ties, the two nations were estranged for many years. Their relationship is growing stronger today because they have compatible motives. Some say that North Korea provided one million shells and missiles to Russia according to the strategic partnership formed in June. The second phase of this agreement is the dispatch of soldiers, which is happening already.
Koizumi Yu is a military analyst who is well versed in the Russian military. On October 28, he published an article on note titled, “North Korean Troops Sent to Ukraine.” He analyzed the status of the Russian soldiers as follows:
“The North Korean troops have already been trained, which is probably their biggest advantage for Russia.” “The Estonian Ministry of Defence estimates that the Russian military is able to train 130,000 soldiers in a six-month period when there are no particular obstacles, totaling 260,000 per year. During the current war, they can only train 40,000 every six months, for an annual total of 80,000 soldiers. Russia can barely mange its conscripted soldiers during times of peace. Today it is training volunteer soldiers along with conscripted troops, meaning that it has certainly exceeded its limits.” “This poor training capacity is likely the main reason why Russia continues sending soldiers with insufficient training to die on the front lines. Russia must be thrilled to suddenly receive light infantry troops who were trained in North Korea – some believe this number totals around 10,000 soldiers. It is said they were dispatched to the Kursk region, and it seems like Russia intends to have them take over the fighting on that front while the main force maintains its superior position in offensive attacks on the Eastern front.”
It seems accurate to say that artillery and soldiers are the reasons why Russia entered into this alliance with North Korea.
Kim abandoned his dream of integration and regards South Korea as an enemy
What does North Korea want from this alliance? Its major goals are probably advanced military technologies and money, as described in The Sankei Shimbun article. However, I think its main objective is to contain the U.S., evidenced by the way North Korea simultaneously began drawing closer to Russia while changing its policy aimed at South Korea. This is described in detail in a February 26, 2024 article on NHK International News Navi, “Reasons for Policy Shift.”
“South Korea was shocked by Kim’s speech in November 2023.” “While he previously spoke about South Korea being part of the same ethnic group – using terms like ‘peaceful integration’ and ‘reconciliation’ – Kim declared that these two countries are not the same ethnic people, positioning South Korea as its enemy. He even stated that North Korea would ‘subjugate’ South Korea’s territory if a war broke out.”
After his speech, Kim demolished the Arch of Reunification built by his father Kim Jong Il as a symbol of North/South unity. The article also describes the views of various experts, starting with Professor Kurata Hideya of the National Defense Academy.
“For a ruthless nuclear strike, a nation cannot afford to hesitate when attacking a member of the same ethnic group. This is why Kim is saying that South Korea is a separate nation with which it shares no ethnic ties. Kim sees this relationship not as an issue of unification, but as one of national security. I am sure there was a great deal of discussion within North Korea before taking this step.” “During his speech, Kim stated, ‘We are developing strong, absolute power, but it is not a preemptive attack method for unification through military force.’ What exactly does this ‘military-based unification’ refer to? North Korea does not expect to suddenly exchange intercontinental ballistic missiles with the U.S. Instead, it anticipates intervention by the U.S. Armed Forces in South Korea if an intentional or accidental fight were to break out between North and South Korea. Kim wants to show that he could use nuclear weapons in such a scenario.”
Kim’s statement indicates that North Korea has tactical nuclear weapons not possessed by the South Korean military or the American forces in South Korea – in other words, North Korea is the only country that can employ nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.
The article featured another specialist: Hong Min, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank under the South Korean government.
“It is not likely that North Korea would launch a military operation against South Korea. It is too risky for North Korea to carry out a local war using its inferior conventional weapons. And considering its relations with Russia and China, neither of those countries would welcome a Korean Peninsula war purposefully started by North Korea. North Korea would benefit more by conducting frequent tests of missiles and other weapons before the American presidential election in November. It wants to build a structure for holding dialogues and negotiations with the U.S. while excluding South Korea. We must realize that this policy U-turn is based on its desire to send a message to the U.S.”
In fact, North Korea has conducted ballistic missile launch tests nearly every month in 2024. It launched several ballistic missiles on November 5, the American election day.
North Korea’s strategy is to draw Russia into crises on the Korean Peninsula
North Korea’s ultimate goal is survival – this is why it is growing closer to Russia and stepping up its antagonism against South Korea. To achieve this, is first aim is to start direct negotiations with the U.S. Now that Donald Trump has won the election, I imagine Kim is hoping to re-open summit meetings with the American leader, which would be premised on confrontation: China, Russia, and North Korea versus America, South Korea, and Japan. Accordingly, a crisis on the Korean Peninsula would involve Russia along with China. Article 4 of the strategic partnership treaty permits North Korea to assist Russia, and Russia to come to North Korea’s aid. Japan must confront these circumstances. While Kim is switching to a hardline stance against South Korea, it also seems like he is making efforts to improve his relationship with Japan. He has taken steps like promptly sending a telegram of sympathy to Prime Minister Kishida Fumio after the Noto Peninsula earthquake in January, and stating his desire to meet with Kishida in March. We must regard all these actions as part of his strategy to ensure North Korea’s survival.
We must never forget that Kim and Putin are dictators – their feelings and intentions determine whether wars occur. Before anything else, Japan has to take a direct look at its current circumstances as a country surrounded by the dictatorships of North Korea and Russia. Serious and imminent danger awaits countries that believe peace will last as long as they wish for it. Japanese people must be constantly aware that peace is only maintained through a balance of power. During the second Trump presidency, I am sure that Japan will restart discussions on increasing our defense spending in particular.
The non-aggression treaty between Germany and the Soviet Union, which I mentioned at the beginning of this essay, did not even last two years. Both countries lost more than 30 million people during a span of roughly four years after Germany invaded the Soviet Union in June 1941. History shows the difficulty of predicting what will happen around the world. If we want to continue enjoying the peace of today, Japan must make steady preparations to handle unforeseen circumstances, regardless of what Trump may demand.
November 22 (Friday), 5:00 p.m.
