On August 2, the top front-page article of the Sankei Shimbun featured an exclusive interview with Kathleen Hicks, the United States’ Vice-Secretary of Defense, about the United States’ plans to introduce thousands of AI drones by next August to improve its deterrence of China.
The article stated: “Hicks, who is second-in-command in the United States’ Department of Defense, explained the DoD’s Replicator Initiative, under which thousands of drones, unmanned subs, and other autonomous systems will be equipped with artificial intelligence (AI). Set to be accomplished by August 2025, the initiative will see thousands of ‘compact, smart, inexpensive’ autonomous aerial, maritime, and submarine systems deployed within the next two years. As China seeks to establish supremacy in the Indo-Pacific region, the DoD is on high alert against China’s ‘intent to create a new international order,’ and has expressed its intent to use Replicator systems to improve its deterrence of China. … On the merits of the initiative, Hicks says ‘it is inexpensive, and will minimize the number of people exposed to gunfire’. She also emphasizes the shorter time required for introduction and modification compared to conventional equipment. With technology such as AI, Replicator systems can operate autonomously, and are designed to function even in conditions with a poor signal. On the reason why the DoD is working with Replicator systems, Hicks says that the DoD is conscious of China’s rapid fortification of its military. ‘In an age of strategic competition with China, a different method of technological innovation [from that used thus far] is required.’ Through this new concept, the DoD has expressed the stance that it is necessary to develop and deploy equipment quickly. The current plan to introduce new systems is phase one, and Hicks indicated the potential for a phase two in the future, although the specifics remain to be decided. China is employing the strategy of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), in which it blocks US military action around China in emergency situations. Hicks stated that China ‘has a quantitative and geographic advantage’ in nearby regions, and emphasized the importance of Replicator systems, which will ‘help the United States to defeat’ China’s A2/AD strategy. Hicks did not give a definitive answer on whether Replicator systems would be used to liberate Taiwan: ‘At this stage, we have yet to disclose details on strategies and usage.’ During the interview, Hicks indicated that the United States does not want a conflict with China, but expressed caution about China’s ongoing expansion of its military. Replicator systems will be used together with conventional equipment in a multilayered strategy to ensure dominance over the Chinese military: ‘We need to make sure that China’s command center decides every day that ‘today is not the day to invade.’’”
According to this article, the Replicator Initiative was launched by Deputy Defense Secretary Hicks in August 2023. Details have not been disclosed. On the initiative, DoD expects to spend $500 million (approximately ¥75 billion) in the 2024 accounting year (October 2023 to September 2024).
After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in 1991, the United States became a singular global power that held sway over the world. Now, however, China has emerged as a competitor. With a population of 1.4 billion—ten times that of Japan—China is unshackling itself from its former poverty, achieving solid economic development, and investing its immense capital in its military with the aim of not only becoming a global power but establishing global supremacy. The United States has explicitly been on alert against China since the middle of Trump’s term, and the Biden administration is taking the same approach. The Replicator Initiative is likely one form this approach is taking. However, these AI-based autonomous weaponry systems are insufficient on their own. An international summit was held in March 2024 to discuss restrictions on this technology, and international regulations may be established regarding their development and use.
Inoue continues as follows:
In recent years, the United States has been joined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in its strong emphasis on the threat posed by China. NATO updates its Strategic Concept in approximately 10-year intervals; in its 2022 Strategic Concept it explicitly addressed the threat posed by China for the first time, stating that “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and value. … We will…[address] the systemic challenges posed by the PRC to Euro-Atlantic security.” The article Could NATO expand to the Asia-Pacific region? The formation of a quasi-alliance with Japan as the country fears China in Nikkei Business Online Edition on July 21, 2023 stated: “A North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) think tank issued a communiqué on July 11 acknowledging that ‘The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and value’ and indicating its ‘view to safeguarding the Alliance’s security interests’. This reiterated the new strategy against China announced in Strategic Concept 2022, which NATO issued in June 2022, while also expressing NATO’s intent to strengthen its relations with non-NATO partner nations. Particular emphasis was placed on strengthening relations with nations in the Indo-Pacific region: Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.” Moreover, the article NATO Singles Out China Over Its Support for Russia in Ukraine, published online by Bloomberg on July 11, 2024, stated that at this year’s (2024) NATO summit, “on the evening of the 10th, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) issued its strongest criticism yet for the Chinese military’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are signs that the Chinese government has developed attack drones for the war in Ukraine. In a declaration made during the three-day period of the summit, NATO called China a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The declaration detailed the parts, equipment, and raw materials supplied by China that could be appropriated by Russia’s Ministry of Defense. China was identified as ‘[posing] systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’ through means such as cyber activities, disinformation, and developments in space capabilities.” *Note: This article was originally written in English and translated to Japanese by Bloomberg. The original English article is behind a paywall, so the quote here is a back-translation from the Japanese version of the article. Obviously, China’s Ministry of National Defense strongly opposed this declaration, but it is clear by now that NATO and China are in opposition.
As the relationship between NATO and China changes, NATO’s relations with Japan are growing closer. In 2018, Japan established a permanent Mission to NATO in Brussels, Belgium, and prime minister Fumio Kishida has attended NATO summits every year since 2022. An event in recent memory is the UK Navy’s deployment of a carrier strike group with aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth to Japan in 2021 for a multinational military exercise between Japan, the UK, the USA, the Netherlands, and Canada (Pacific Crown 21). According to the article JSDF participation in multinational military exercises increased 18-fold from 2006, over 60% tactical and combat exercises in anticipation of crises on the Yomiuri Shimbun’s website on March 3, 2024, 56 joint exercises between the Japan Self-Defense Forces and other nations’ militaries were conducted in 2023, compared to only three in 2006. Of the 56 exercises, around 60% were conducted at sea. The article states that “Yasuhiro Kawakami, former rear admiral and president of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s Security Research Group, states that multinational military exercises send a strong message to countries like China through the collective participation of nations sharing common values such as the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific region. With the relative decline in the United States’ military might, we are likely to see an increase in such exercises in future.” This assessment is likely absolutely correct. In July of this year (2024), the joint exercise Pacific Skies 2024 was held by the Japanese, German and Spanish air forces near the Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s Chitose base, with the German Air Force and Spanish Air and Space Force flying Eurofighters to Japan. In future, the ASDF is likely to bring fighter jets and other members of its fleet to Europe for joint training as NATO countries work actively to maintain an “open Indo-Pacific region” in the face of Chinese military activity. This is probably also due to an awareness of relations between China and Russia, but fostering closer security relations with the United States and many other countries is also advantageous for Japan from the perspective of avoiding wars.
The outcome of the United States’ election will almost certainly be the greatest factor in the future direction of its strategy regarding China. Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate after President Biden’s withdrawal, running against Republican candidate Donald Trump in a race where the outcome is extremely difficult to predict. Of Trump’s team, Senator J.D. Vance, who was selected as the candidate for vice president in July, is attracting the most attention. The article Vice presidential candidate Vance declares China the USA’s greatest threat and pledges to focus on issues between the USA and China on the Yomiuri Shimbun’s website on July 16, 2024, had this to say: “Senator J.D. Vance, who was selected as the Republican vice presidential candidate in the United States’ presidential race, has actively spoken on diplomacy and security since he was first elected in 2022, and was dubbed an ‘isolationist’ by American political journal POLITICO for stances such as his opposition of the United States’ aid for Ukraine. In an interview on Fox News on the 15th, when asked about the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vance emphasized that the United States should ‘resolve things quickly so that we can focus on the real issue, which is China. They are the greatest threat to the United States.’ Vance has repeatedly asserted that the United States does not have the capacity to continue sending military aid to Ukraine, and has opposed aid to Ukraine in budget decisions. He has asserted that in order to achieve peace in Ukraine, ‘Ukraine will need to cede much of its territory. That is the only way to resolve the issue.’ At the Munich Security Conference this February, Vance argued in favor of the United States distancing itself from Ukraine and ‘pivoting to Asia,’ a view opposed by the European delegates. His election as vice president could be gasoline on a diplomatic fire.”
Vance first became a public figure with the publishing of his bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy in 2016. Born to “hillbillies,” as the white working class population of the Appalachian Mountains in states such as Kentucky and Ohio are known, Vance spent four years in the US Marine Corps after graduating high school and served in Iraq before advancing from a local state university to the prestigious Yale Law School and becoming a lawyer, escaping generations of poverty through his own efforts. He published Hillbilly Elegy in his early thirties and was initially critical of Trump, but later changed his stance. Earning Trump’s approval, Vance was elected as a senator in 2022 before being selected as Trump’s vice presidential candidate. His America-first stance has earned him a reputation as “more Trump-like than Trump”; as the article on the Yomiuri Shimbun’s website stated, he is in favor of stopping aid to Ukraine and focusing on measures against China, which he considers the United States’ greatest threat. There is no question that if Trump secures a win for the Republican Party in the United States’ election in November and Vance becomes vice president, the United States’ diplomatic policy will change dramatically. At minimum, the United States’ efforts in policies against China is highly likely to be beneficial for Japan’s security. At the same time, a new Trump administration could increase Japan’s military burden. What are we to make of this?
I once heard that when former French president Charles de Gaulle was asked which nations were potential enemies of France, he replied “all of our neighboring nations.” For Japan, a country surrounded not only by the burgeoning forces of China but by North Korea and Russia too, these words of de Gaulle’s ring all too true. When we look back on the history of humanity, it is clear that war breaks out when the balance of might is disrupted. Wars occur not because of a nation building forces but because of a nation neglecting to fortify its forces. As Defense Vice-Secretary Hicks stated at the beginning of this essay, we must always make sure that China’s command center decides every day that “today is not the day to invade.” With this warning in mind, regardless of the outcome of the US election, Japan must foster closer security relations with many countries while also making every effort to increase its own defense capabilities, such as fortifying its own military, to ensure that Japan does not become a vassal state of China.
June 18 (Tuesday), 5:00 p.m.