I have met Edward Luttwak, a renowned American strategist, and exchanged views with him in the past. The December 2018 issue of the magazine WiLL published an article by strategy scholar Masashi Okuyama, summarizing what Luttwak said during his visit to Japan in October. It was shockingly titled, “Luttwak Says the United States Will Destroy the Chinese Communist Party.” It read, “The Donald J. Trump administration is rethinking its China policy, and is in the middle of a Sino-American trade war. Now, it has arrived at a national strategy of destroying the Communist Party of China (CPC) government.”
　The article gives four pieces of proof for this prediction. Number one is:

　Number two is “Agreement among the military and diplomacy lobbies to take an anti-Chinese stance.” At the end of September, a U.S. Navy ship conducted a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) near the Spratly Islands. A Chinese vessel approached the American ship in an unsafe manner, and according to the article, military and diplomacy officials agree this is a challenge against American hegemony. Number three is “demands from the technology industry.” Chinese nationals who worked at IT companies like Apple and Google have brought back technologies and data to their native country. To prevent these crimes, the IT industry has apparently asked the FBI to permanently station agents in Silicon Valley. Number four is, “The American media is no longer ignoring the human rights violations by the CPC.” In September, The New York Times published a special feature on increasingly fierce oppression in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. This has inspired greater criticism of the CPC among the American people. Vice President Mike Pence also criticized the Chinese government vehemently, saying, “Beijing is holding hundreds of thousands, and possibly millions, of Uyghur Muslims in so-called ‘re-education camps,’ where they’re forced to endure around-the-clock political indoctrination.” The American government has previously brought up human rights issues in China, but only the Trump administration has engaged in full-fledged criticism and even used tariffs as sanctions.

　I feel this is definitely the beginning of a new cold war between the U.S. and China.

　The November 13, 2018 issue of Newsweek included an article by journalist Daisuke Kondo, entitled, “President Xi Jinping’s Naval Dreams.” It describes in detail the American and Chinese intentions suggested by the boat incident that was mentioned in the WiLL article.
　Underneath the subtitles, “Close Encounter Enrages Pence,” and, “Reasons for Focusing on the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Senkaku Islands Despite the Threat of a New Cold War,” it starts with an explanation of what happened in the South China Sea:

　However, China appears unconcerned about these American restraints:

　This article states that China is attempting to build a triangular area of dominion, covering three points in the South China Sea (including artificial islands in the Spratly Islands), for a military balance with the U.S. Armed Forces.
　Another reason China is strengthening its naval power is because “Xi intends to integrate Taiwan during his term of office:”

　China has continually encroached upon its neighbors since the country was founded. It invaded Tibet in 1948, and one theory says it killed 1.2 million Tibetans. It sent “volunteer troops” to take part in the Korean War, which the Soviet Union instigated Kim Il Sung to start, in 1950. The Sino-Indian war took place in 1962. The Sino-Soviet border conflict, a military conflict over territorial rights to Damansky Island and other locations, occurred in 1969. Deng Xiaoping dispatched troops to Vietnam to punish it for invading Cambodia in 1979, resulting in the outbreak of the Sino-Vietnamese War. The Chinese army was met with fierce counterattacks by the Vietnamese army – which had lots of combat experience with the U.S. and abundant equipment – so it was forced to withdraw. China has established its land borders while experiencing conflict with the countries it touches. China’s next aim is maritime hegemony and unification with Taiwan, as the Newsweek article describes. The media reported that Chinese navy leaders suggested to U.S. Pacific Command Admiral Timothy J. Keating that China and the U.S. divide and rule the Pacific Ocean, with Hawaii as the middle point, in 2007. In 2017, Xi referred to this concept in a joint press conference with Trump, when he said, “The Pacific Ocean is big enough to accommodate both China and the U.S.” China is aiming to gain global hegemony by 2049 as part of its “Hundred-Year Marathon” plan, and I think it is clear that China is augmenting its naval strength and moving into the Pacific Ocean as the first step.
　Today, the PLC can fight on land, but it lacks control of the sea or air. The Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) still have superior aerial warfare strength in collaboration with the U.S. Armed Forces. But the Chinese army is accelerating its introduction of fifth-generation jet fighters, and it will be on par with Japan in the not-so-distant future. In terms of naval power, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) surpasses the Chinese navy because of cooperation with the U.S. Navy based on the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and the JMSDF has control of the seas near Japan. However, China has the Liaoning, its first aircraft carrier, and has already launched a domestically produced aircraft carrier with another under construction. If China continues reinforcing its navy at this pace, it will prove a major threat to Japan.
　China and the U.S. are engaged in subtle tactics regarding North Korea. Trump and Kim Jong Un held a summit meeting in June of this year, where they released a joint statement declaring that the Korean Peninsula will be fully denuclearized. However, the U.S. has handled North Korea in an ambiguous manner since then, and I wonder if it actually intends to make North Korea fully abandon its nuclear weapons. The U.S.’s goal is to place checks on China. North Korea’s nuclear weapons were originally aimed at China. Knowing this, China wanted to somehow hinder the North Korean nuclear program. In 2004, Kim Jong Il was called to Beijing and asked to halt nuclear development, which he refused. The Chinese side plotted to remove Kim Jong Il. The plan was to assassinate Kim Jong Il by blowing up his entire train on the way home from Beijing with 800 tons of TNT (the equivalent of a small nuclear bomb) at Ryongchon Station. It is thought that a Kim Jong Il dummy was riding on the train, and that Russia or the U.S. provided information to help him escape. Kim Jong Il realized that nuclear weapons were the only way to protect himself, and he carried out the first successful nuclear test in 2006 (although it was imperfect). Afterwards, North Korea conducted six nuclear tests and even has hydrogen bombs. Still, the U.S., Russia, and China are nuclear powers with huge quantities of nuclear weapons, and North Korean nuclear arms do not pose a significant threat to them. I think the U.S. is looking to maintain a nuclear balance of power with China by permitting North Korea to be a latent nuclear country – in other words, the U.S. will tacitly allow North Korea’s concealed nuclear weapons, in exchange for North Korea not developing or possessing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and not manufacturing or testing any nuclear weapons in the future. Trump’s recent statements about Kim Jong Un invite this type of speculation. Of course, this would be a major threat to Japan. If North Korea secretly had nuclear weapons, it might use South Korea under Moon Jae-in (who wants to reconcile with North Korea) to unite the two Koreas into a federation with a “one country, two systems” policy. As the advance guard of China, it could serve to menace Japan. Perhaps this Korean Federation would also demand that Japan pay several trillion yen of compensation to North Korea as reparations for the period before and after World War II. If Japan does provide this compensation, I think North Korea would further enhance its military power. The Japanese government must collect information, and there is absolutely no need to pay any reparations, considering the extensive infrastructure from the prewar era that still exists in North Korea. Japan must maintain a maximum level of vigilance.